Articles by Lance Roberts
- Markets
A Handful of Stocks Are Carrying the Market—And That’s Raising Summer Risk
We are bearish on the assumption that this market leadership will remain durable for another 12 to 18 months without a meaningful reset.
- Markets
Social Media’s Stagflation Trade Sounds Smart Until You Follow Full Economic Cycle
Most damaging investment advice isn’t built on outright lies. It’s built on partial truths, stretched past the point where the data still holds
- Strategists
McDonald’s and Peers Sink While Consumers Pull Back and Diet Trends Reshape Demand
Many of its competitors are at or near 52-week lows. The bullet points below show how far other fast food retailers are from their 52-week highs.
- Strategists
Semiconductor Stocks Have Entered Dangerous Parabolic Territory
The chart is now textbook parabolic. And parabolic charts almost never end politely.
- Markets
Bonds Under Pressure Or Stocks Overvalued?
When looking at any graph comparing two instruments, as we have below, it’s always tempting to tell a story based on one of the two securities.
- Markets
Wall Street’s Earnings Forecasts Just Turned Bullish
Q1 was a genuinely strong quarter. Margins are real. Cash flow is real. The broadening is real. None of that is in dispute.
- Markets
Everyone Is Long Commodities… and That’s Exactly the Problem
After three decades of managing money, I have learned to be THE most skeptical of the trades that feel the most inevitable.
- Strategists
Oil Rig Counts Don’t Tell The Whole Story
Many investors may assume that no growth in the number of operating oil rigs implies limited oil production growth, that assumption is not necessarily true
- Active management
The Index Trap? How AI Could Break Passive Investing’s Winning Streak
that would reverse the trend over the last two decades, in which investors increasingly relied on passive investment strategies.
- Markets
Does The Treasury Hold The Next Market Tailwind?
The Treasury General Account (TGA) is effectively the US Treasury’s checking account held at the Fed.
- Markets
Market Correction Risk Is Stacking Fast Into Summer
It’s driven by four of them showing up together, and ignoring any of them would be a costly mistake.
- Markets
S&P Earnings Record May Be A Warning
The S&P 500 closed at a fresh all-time high Friday, capping a week in which the market did something remarkable: it largely stopped caring about Iran.
- Strategists
A Robot Economy: Who Gets Rich, Who Gets Left Behind
In the not-so-distant future, robots will infiltrate every aspect of our lives, from office work and manufacturing to service work and trade skills
- Strategists
AI Trade Gets Complicated Fast as Microsoft–OpenAI Terms Reset
The relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI has been a defining partnership in the blooming AI technology.
- Strategists
Fed Division Hits Record High as Policy Uncertainty Fuels Market Volatility
. But the FOMC meeting statement, which represents the views of the voting members, was very telling.
- Markets
Oil Shock Didn’t Break Markets—What Comes Next Might
So the question isn’t why the catastrophists were wrong. It’s what they missed, and where the real risks now sit.
- Markets
The Dollar’s Funeral Keeps Getting Rescheduled
Flows make markets. Right now, the flows are still pointing home — and the AI cycle means they likely will for some time.
- Markets
U.S. Government Debt Is Not a Roman Empire Story
Government debt is not what the doom crowd thinks it is, and the historical comparisons they love most have almost nothing in common
- Markets
Warsh Pushes Fed Overhaul as Markets Shrug off Oil Shock Risks
Regarding current monetary policy, Warsh believes inflation is lower than official indicators state.
- Strategists
Meme-Style Squeeze Sends Avis Budget Soaring While Risks Stack Beneath Surface
While CAR can certainly go higher, the move is not sustainable. The reason is quite simply that CAR’s fundamentals are horrendous.
- Markets
18% Drop. Two-Week Recovery. Most Investors Missed It
Here’s what the market lesson is about: risk management, behavior, and what to do with your portfolio right now.
- Markets
Short Covering Rally Or Is The Bull Market Back?
The S&P 500’s return to all-time highs is technically significant, but significance and sustainability are not the same thing.
- Markets
Up 8.2% and Counting: What the S&P 500’s Rally Is Really Signaling Next
That’s a recovery that demands explanation, honest evaluation, and a clear-eyed view of what comes next.
- Markets
Q1 Earnings Are Here: Is This Rally Real—or Ready to Crack?
The traders who will get destroyed in this environment are the ones who fade every rally out of fear and chase every selloff into panic.
- Markets
Investors Are Underestimating This Oil Shock Risk
The appeal of that thesis. The disruption is genuinely unprecedented. Roughly 20% of global oil and LNG now sit stranded behind a military blockade
- Strategists
Investors Ignore AI IPO Surge at Their Own Risk
When the geopolitical fog clears, AI-related IPOs may become an important market narrative for the remainder of the year.
- Markets
The Stock Market Rally: Buy Or Fade It?
The answer, based on every technical and macro lens I use, points heavily toward the latter.
- Markets
Markets Are Slipping: What Consecutive Weekly Losses Signal Now
Following five consecutive weekly declines, the market’s bounce this week could continue for a bit longer.
- Markets
Stock Market Breadth Collapse Signals More Than Headlines Are Telling You
More than 200 companies are in their own private bear markets, even as the index itself is not.
- Markets
Unemployment Crossing Key Threshold Sparks Recession Fears and Market Risk
As we circle, the unemployment rate is now above the moving average. Albert’s comment alongside his graph is as follows
- Markets
Oil Price Surge Sparks Inflation Fears—but This Isn’t the 1970s
Supply shortages and associated high oil prices are likely temporary, unlike during the longer-lasting embargo and Iranian revolution noted above.
- Markets
Corporate Debt Slices up Record Issuance as Market Volatility Surges
This strategic shift has pushed the average number of pieces per deal to an all-time high of 3.3.
- Markets
S&P Just Broke 200-DMA – Here’s What Investors Should Do Now
There are hundreds of technical indicators that market analysts track, but only one gets a live television chyron the moment it breaks.
- Markets
The CDX Is Flashing Red: What Credit Spreads Know That Stocks Don’t
There is no guarantee this time ends the same way as 2008, 2015, or 2022. Markets can and do defy patterns.
- Markets
Global Investors Hedge Against Risk, Not Against U.S. Dollar
The data tells a more nuanced, and arguably more important, story. One that investors ignore in favor of the simpler narrative
- Markets
Credit Spreads Signal Trouble Ahead While Fed Holds Its Ground
Few Fed meetings in recent memory have presented the FOMC with a more uncomfortable set of competing signals than yesterday’s.
