Entering the Wednesday, Feb. 25 trading session, the S&P 500 was up just 0.80% year-to-date. Obviously, that’s better than being in the red, but it’s a far cry from the performances offered by international stocks.
Still, advisors should note their clients, broadly speaking, are enthusiastic about 2026 has in store and those positive vibes spread across segments, including stocks, the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts and even sagging Bitcoin.
Consider the findings in a recent Roundhill Investments survey. The exchange traded funds (ETFs) conducted its first-ever market outlook survey in January and respondents were decidedly bullish. That doesn’t mean advisors should damp clients’ enthusiasm, but they should be aware of just how optimistic clients are today.
One notable takeaway from the Roundhill poll is that nearly 93% of respondents believe the S&P 500 will rise up to or more than 10% this year. The bullishness doesn’t end there.
Clients Expect the Fed to Deliver
Predictably, the Federal Reserve looms large in the 2026 investing equation. The central bank disappointed market participants by not cutting rates in January and there’s some talk that Kevin Warsh – President Trump’s choice to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair – may be reluctant to indulge the White House’s desire for easier monetary policy.
In financial market terms, these old issues and the Roundhill survey suggests that to some extent, investors are “over it” because they’re banking on more rate cuts this year.
“When asked how many interest rate cuts the Fed will perform in 2026, the majority of responses were in line with current market expectations, as 46.41% expected 2 cuts in 2026,” notes the asset manager. “However, it was interesting to see that a quarter of respondents expected more than 2 cuts, with 20.3% expecting 3 rate cuts and 5.23% expecting more than 4 cuts.”
It’s likely that advisors have some sophisticated clients staying abreast of Fed goings on and for those that love talking “Fed shop,” it’s worth reiterating at least two points. First, it’s best to stick to a well-formulated plan regardless of what the Fed is doing. Second, four rate cuts, while likely satisfactory to the president, is probably asking a bit much.
Bitcoin Enthusiasm Remains Palpable
Bitcoin, the largest digital currency by market capitalization, is mired in a now lengthy, severe bear market, but some clients are likely to be undaunted. Some may even be sensing an opportunity to buy the proverbial dip. As the Roundhill chart below confirms, some investors are constructive on Bitcoin, but their expectations for the remainder of 2026 may be stretches and not recognized before the year draws to a close.
Getting back to $100,000 would require Bitcoin to gain approximately 50% from where it traded at this writing. As of the all-time, the cryptocurrency would need to nearly double. In either case, that’s asking a lot in what amounts to be 10 months. Looked at another way, Bitcoin could reward clients or disappoint them, confirming that the right portion size in portfolios is essential.
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