Presidential popularity doesn’t predict market returns
What this chart shows:
This chart tracks U.S. presidential approval ratings over time alongside the S&P 500’s average return based on the prevailing level of approval.
Why it matters:
People care about politics, but markets don’t belong to a political party. They perform well during periods of high approval, low approval, and everything in between.
Investors who disapprove of the sitting president have historically been wrong to let their feelings drive portfolio decisions. Interestingly, the best returns for stocks have come when the country is most divided (approval rating between 35% – 50%).
For this reason, investment strategies should be based on your long-term goals, not who is in the White House.
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