In the previous Lab Notes, we outlined the key scenarios and the market delivered.
But now comes the more important question: what’s next - especially as early signs of exhaustion begin to appear across key markets.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DX.F)
We begin Today’s Lab Note with a quick return to Friday’s quote:
“(…) today’s small bullish gap has already been partially filled, which increases the risk of further downside (…)
If that happens, the next step becomes straightforward.
A retest of the nearest support zone at 97.56-97.82 (still tied to the open March 2nd gap) becomes the base case.(…)”
From today’s perspective, we can see that the scenario played out as expected, with the dollar extending lower and printing a new local low on Friday.
That move once again tested the key green support zone, and it held. The defense of that area triggered a higher open to start the week, with a bullish gap during the Asian session pushing the dollar back above the orange consolidation.
Technically, that’s a constructive signal, but the follow-through tells a different story.
Buyers failed to maintain those gains, and the gap has already been filled. At the time of writing, the index is trading back below the lower boundary of the consolidation, which suggests that another retest of the key support zone may be just around the corner.
Key Levels to Watch:
Supports: 97.56-97.82 (green support zone) / 97.36
Resistances: 98.15/98.16 / 98.60 / 98.75-99.68
Gold (GC.F)
Friday’s quote sets the tone for today - so let’s start there:
“(…) Today’s small bullish gap (4808-4815) adds to that narrative. It attracted fresh buying interest during the Asian session, and (…) price continues to hold above yesterday’s bearish gap.
That keeps the door open. As long as this structure holds – (…) one more push higher is very much on the table. If bulls manage to break above 4896-4900, the next upside target sits around 4913. (…)”
Looking at today’s session, the bullish scenario also played out with gold reaching and slightly exceeding our upside target, printing a daily high at 4917 (well done to those who stayed with the move).
But here’s where things get more interesting.
Silver (SI.F)
Let’s start this section by revisiting Friday’s quote:
“(…) the bullish scenario from April 10 - based on the orange consolidation - remains fully in play and opens the path for further upside:
“(…) the setup is worth watching. Why? Because if bulls manage to push through that zone (…) , the path toward ~8300 could be open - with the move aligning with the height of the previous consolidation.(...)”
Just like gold, silver followed through on the bullish scenario outlined earlier, reaching a new local high at 8324 (again - well played if you stayed with the move!).
Friday’s session also brought a meaningful technical development, as two prior bearish gaps were neutralized. Given the relative weakness in gold, that was a strong signal on its own.
But the context quickly shifted.
Related: Dollar Breakdown Hits Target as Copper Surge Validates Structure