By any account, 2025 will go down as a disappointing for Bitcoin bulls, also known as HODLers. Entering the year, the stars were aligned for this to be a banner period for the largest cryptocurrency.
An accommodative policy regime is in place in Washington, D.C. and institutional investors continue embracing Bitcoin. Those are among the factors that should have facilitated upside for the king of digital currencies in 2025. Indeed, Bitcoin had its moments in 2025, at one point racing to an all-time high, but as noted in the charts below, the largest spot ETFs faltered.
(Image: ETFReplay.com)
Despite the aforementioned fundamental factors and continuing inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs, it’s actually not stunning that the cryptocurrency slumped this year. Disappointing? Yes. Surprising? No. The reason for the lack of surprise is revealed in Bitcoin “seasonality.”
Not Those Seasons
Rightfully so, advisors and investors often think about seasonal trends in terms of the actual seasons – autumn, winter, spring and summer. Bitcoin has falls, winters, springs and summers, but they don’t adhere to the traditional calendar.
Morgan Stanley goes into the ins of outs of Bitcoin’s seasons, noting that the summer that occurs after a the quadrennial halving, which last occurred in April 2024, often serves as a prelude to gains. Makes sense because each halving reduces the rewards Bitcoin miners earn and that’s highly relevant in discussing a supply-constrained asset, of which Bitcoin is.
“Once the price surpasses the old high, it tends to attract interest from the media, new investors and businesses, which can then drive prices even higher,” notes Morgan Stanley. The ‘fall’ represents the time between when the old high is passed and when a new high is reached, which signals that the bull market has run its course. Under this framework, bitcoin entered “fall” in December 2024. Historically, crypto fall has lasted 10 months, on average, but the current period may have already spanned longer than that.”
As one might expect, Bitcoin’s winters are unpleasant and essentially represent bear market conditions, but those scenarios aren’t confined to winter months. They can occur at any point over the course of a year. They do, however, give way to “springs” and those periods can often be lengthy.
“The crypto market tends to recover from its lows in anticipation of the coming summer period as investors try to get in before prices spike with the next bull market,” adds Morgan Stanley. This ‘spring’ period of historical price momentum occurs between the latest bottom and the next halving event, starting the cycle anew. On average, it spans 17 months.”
Keeping with the seasonal colloquialisms, think of Bitcoin fall as harvest period or a time to take profits if you’re an active trader. Conversely, spring can be the time to “plant” some Bitcoin seeds.
Bitcoin Season Can Help, But It’s Not Biblical
Regardless of asset class, seasonal trends are nifty, but to trade and invest around those indicators, there needs fundamental and technical foundations. Otherwise, all we’ve got are nifty anecdotes. That is to say Bitcoin’s seasons are pertinent and bear monitoring, but they’re not gospel.
“One key thing to keep in mind: As with any investment, past performance doesn’t indicate future results. Potential risks such as encryption breaking, software bugs, recession or coordinated government action could emerge before the halving and disrupt the cycle,” concludes Morgan Stanley.
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