Since ChatGPT burst onto the scene in 2022, artificial intelligence (AI) has moved from science-fiction to reality. For many, AI has become a necessity.

The transformation has been swift. Nearly every company now wants to integrate generative AI into their business model, while governments are scrambling to develop sovereign AI infrastructure.

Wall Street has taken notice, rewarding the companies behind the technology shift handsomely.

According to JPMorgan, between 65% and 75% of the S&P 500’s returns since 2022 have come from just 42 companies involved in generative AI.

The surge has sparked an arms race for GPU-powered data center capacity. The numbers are staggering. Goldman Sachs forecasts that data center energy usage will increase 175% by 2030, while Deloitte believes AI power demand in the U.S. could grow from 4 gigawatts in 2024 to 123 gigawatts by 2035. To put things in perspective, that’s equivalent to powering 90 million to 100 million homes.

Big Tech Can’t Build Fast Enough

But here’s the catch: building Tier III data centers—the kind powerful enough to support AI—can take years. When you factor in land acquisition, zoning, permitting, power substation construction and more, traditional development timelines simply can’t keep pace with demand.

This is precisely where Bitcoin miners enter the picture.

Take HIVE Digital Technologies, where I serve as Executive Chairman. Over the years, deployed thousands of ASICs—application-specific integrated circuits—across Canada, Sweden and Iceland. But we were building more than just “Bitcoin factories.” We were also engineering adaptable digital power “shells,” complete with industrial-grade infrastructure, redundant power system and access to low-cost, renewable energy.

Now, these Tier I shells are now being upgraded to Tier III, AI-ready data centers in a fraction of the time traditional builds require. As I recently said in tweet, Tier I data centers aren’t just for mining Bitcoin; they’re the keystone layer of AI, cloud and digital sovereignty, forming the physical backbone on which Tier III AI hyperscalers can be built.

From Side Hustle to Main Business

What started as a side hustle for many miners is now transforming into a full-fledged business model. I hope you agree that the economics are compelling.

In 2025 alone, public Bitcoin miners signed over $65 billion worth of AI and high-performance computing (HPC) contracts with hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft, according to CoinShares. The asset management company projects that AI infrastructure can generate three times the revenue per megawatt compared to Bitcoin mining. Coindesk goes even further, reporting that AI workloads can deliver up to 25 times more revenue per kilowatt-hour than mining, depending on the application.

With numbers like these, it’s no surprise that an estimated 70% of mining companies have now pivoted to include AI infrastructure in their portfolios.

Bitcoin Miners’ Strategic Advantage: Power, Land and Speed

The secret weapon Bitcoin miners bring to the table is that they already control the inputs.

According to a Bernstein report, miners have secured over 14 gigawatts of power, much of it in areas with access to hydro, wind or solar energy. They’ve also strategically built in low-cost, rural areas with large tracts of land, perfect for AI expansion.

And because the substations, transformers, cooling system and the rest of the critical infrastructure are already in place, miners can cut data center deployment times by as much as 75% compared to traditional players like Oracle or Alphabet. In a market where GPU supply chains are tight and competition is fierce, the advantage of time is invaluable.

The Infrastructure Play of a Generation?

Commercial builders are catching on to the incredible demand for compute. According to FMI, construction of offices, hotels and warehouses is projected to decline this year, while data center construction is set to rise 23%. AI demand is lifting it to over 6% of all nonresidential building activity, up from 2% in 2023.

HIVE’s BUZZ Strategy

At HIVE, we saw this shift early and acted decisively. Last year, we officially launched BUZZ HPC, which now operates across Canada and Sweden.

BUZZ is converting our Boden, Sweden facility—originally built for Bitcoin mining—into a Tier III, liquid-cooled AI data center that will house 2,000 NVIDIA GPUs, purpose-built for training and inference.

Meanwhile, in Toronto, we’ve acquired a 7.2-megawatt site, and we’re upgrading it to a Tier III+ facility to support sovereign AI infrastructure for governments and other large institutions.

Our roadmap is ambitious: up to 11,000 GPUs by 2026, deployed across Sweden, Ontario and New Brunswick, all powered by renewable energy and designed for rapid growth.

Owning a Piece of the AI Future

Everyone is scrambling to own a piece of the AI future. What many don’t realize is that Bitcoin miners have already built it.

And we’re just getting started.

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

  • The best-performing airline stock for the week was Southwest Airlines, up 13.2%. According to TD, Southwest Airlines reported fourth quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings per share of $0.59 versus consensus estimates of $0.57, driven by lower-than-expected non-fuel costs. Management guided first quarter earnings per share well above expectations at $0.45 versus consensus of $0.28, including the impact of Winter Storm Fern, and expects at least $4.00 in earnings per share for fiscal year 2026, with a formal range to be announced at the next earnings report or earlier.

  • Container throughput at key ports in China recorded 10% year-over-year growth this week, while the number of international freight flights rose 5% year-over-year, according to UBS.
  • Airline demand has strengthened, with Delta’s cash ticket sales up double digits, United’s corporate revenues up to high single digits so far in January, and Alaska’s managed corporate revenues up more than 20% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. Additionally, Transportation Security Administration throughput is up 3.7% in January compared with a 0.2% decline in December, while airline card spend has accelerated from down double digits in mid-December to low single-digit growth this month, according to Bank of America.

Weaknesses

  • The worst-performing airline stock for the week was Bombardier, down 11.7%, according to Morgan Stanley. Severe winter weather caused major operational disruptions, with airline cancellations nearing pandemic-era highs: 9.3% of scheduled flights were canceled over the past week. American Airlines had the highest cancellation rate at 14.1% of scheduled flights, while JetBlue Airways and Spirit Airlines also experienced elevated cancellations of 13.0% and 11.7%, respectively; the last time disruptions reached this magnitude in a single day was April 1, 2020, at the onset of pandemic lockdowns.
  • Container spot freight rates remained soft this week, with the overall Shanghai Containerized Freight Index declining 7% year over year, reflecting a seasonal slowdown in pre–Chinese New Year demand, according to UBS.
  • At KLM, Chief Executive Officer Marjan Rintel cited a “very challenging” start to 2026 due to extreme weather-related operational disruptions, while Morgan Stanley noted the airline’s balance sheet remains stretched, with leverage elevated relative to peers.

Opportunities

  • On the potential for higher rates on extra-legroom seats, UBS noted that in the recent past, 50% of Southwest’s customers purchased a fare class above the lowest tier, highlighting that a significant portion of consumers are willing to pay for an upgrade.
  • DP World has a 10% share of the global container market and operates in 85 countries. The company expects 2026 volume growth to exceed the 2% consensus. Additionally, Maersk and Chinese liners are now using the Red Sea trade route, with insurance premiums returning to pre-Houthi attack levels.
  • According to Goldman, airport-level data skewed particularly positive for airports in Atlanta (GA), Boston (MA), Cincinnati (OH), Dallas–Fort Worth (TX), Kansas City (MO), Raleigh–Durham (NC), and Ontario (CA). Delta has the number one or two market share in four of these seven airports.

Threats

  • According to RBC, Airbus has struck a cautious tone in its fourth quarter fiscal year 2025 pre-close commentary. The company noted lower Airbus deliveries (793 versus initial guidance of 820) as leading to reduced fixed cost absorption and highlighted inventory buildup in anticipation of higher deliveries as a headwind to free cash flow.
  • Leading-indicator SCFI spot rates fell week over week by 6.2% on European routes and by 6.8% on North American routes. Morgan Stanley expects the seasonal upswing in spot rates ahead of the Chinese New Year has likely faded, creating near-term headwinds for industry stocks.
  • According to Goldman, Dallas Love Field airport trends were weak through Fall 2025 and into the first half of January, following mid-single-digit declines over the same period in 2024 and a double-digit decline in January 2025. Passenger volumes from September through December 2025 were down 7% on flat seat supply.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strengths

  • LVMH shares sold off this week after the company reported weaker-than-expected growth in its Fashion & Leather Goods division, its most important profit driver. The slowdown raised concerns about near-term luxury demand, particularly as consumers remain cautious in key markets, leading investors to react negatively despite the company’s long-term brand strength and market leadership.
  • Tesla shares sold off after the company reported results that disappointed investors, as profit margins continued to face pressure from price cuts and higher costs. While deliveries remained solid, weaker profitability and cautious commentary on demand and pricing shifted investor focus to near-term earnings risk, resulting in a negative reaction despite Tesla’s long-term growth story.
  • Royal Caribbean, a cruise line, was the best-performing stock in the S&P Global Luxury Index over the past five days. Shares jumped 18.65% on Thursday after the company reported results that beat expectations and raised its outlook, signaling strong demand for cruises. Higher onboard spending, improved pricing power, and better cost control boosted profitability and cash flow, easing concerns about debt and margins.

Weaknesses

  • Las Vegas Sands shares moved lower after the company reported results pointing to a slower-than-expected recovery in Macau, its largest market. Weakness in mass-market gaming volumes and cautious consumer spending weighed on revenue growth, while higher operating costs pressured margins.
  • Gold, which plays a key role in wealth preservation and the luxury sector, surged to record highs earlier this week, rising above $5,600 per ounce. Following the sharp run-up, investors and traders took profits, pushing gold back below $5,000 per ounce on Friday.
  • Star Entertainment Group, an Australian casino and gaming company, was the worst-performing name in the S&P Global Luxury Index over the past five days, losing 21.86%. Shares declined due to ongoing regulatory issues and liquidity concerns, which pressured investor confidence.

Opportunities

  • Despite mixed results from LVMH this week, Bank of America continues to rate the company Buy. The broker expects a gradual improvement in global luxury demand in 2026, with LVMH uniquely positioned to benefit from a potential cyclical upswing. Bank of America models 5% revenue growth in the Fashion & Leather Goods division, which accounted for 47% of group revenue and 76% of group EBIT in 2025.

  • UBS expects the luxury sector to grow by around 5% this year and believes the worst of the downturn may be behind it. While the recovery is still in its early stages, momentum could build as Chinese demand shows signs of improvement and renewed creativity through new designs helps draw customers back into stores.
  • The free trade deal between the European Union and India could benefit the luxury market over time by making European luxury goods more accessible and competitive in India’s large consumer market. Under the agreement, tariffs on many European imports, including premium cars, wines, spirits, leather goods, and other high-end products, are expected to be significantly reduced or phased out over several years, potentially lowering prices for Indian buyers and stimulating demand for European luxury brands.

Threats

  • Most luxury companies reporting so far have beaten earnings per share expectations, but management has adopted a more cautious tone on the outlook. While 2026 growth guidance has not been cut, companies highlighted uncertainty around consumer demand, which could weigh on investor confidence and pressure luxury stocks in the near term.
  • The upcoming China New Year holiday period represents a risk for the luxury sector, as it remains unclear whether travel and consumer spending will meaningfully improve. While the holiday has historically supported higher foot traffic and luxury demand, signs of weaker-than-expected activity could reinforce concerns about a slow or uneven recovery in Chinese consumption.
  • Bloomberg reported that a People’s Bank of China survey showed more Chinese households plan to save more and spend less. The survey also found consumers are increasingly willing to spend on services, with education, healthcare, and travel ranking among the top categories, suggesting a shift away from discretionary luxury goods.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

  • Uranium led commodities this week with about a 15% surge, reaching over $100 per pound. Rising demand from nuclear expansion and data centers, plus investor momentum, are pushing prices higher. While structural demand and cyclical flows support the rally, there is ongoing debate about fundamentals versus speculation.

  • Aluminum Corporation of China and Rio Tinto agreed to acquire a 68.6% controlling stake in Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio for 4.69 billion reais ($904 million), purchasing shares from Grupo Votorantim and triggering a mandatory tender offer that could lead to delisting. The deal signals tightening aluminum supply as Chinese producers look overseas and aligns with Rio Tinto’s push toward low-carbon aluminum, given CBA’s integrated, low-emissions production chain.
  • Caterpillar Inc. beat fourth-quarter earnings expectations as surging demand from AI-driven data centers lifted its power and energy segment, which posted a 25% year-over-year profit increase and became the company’s fastest-growing business. Strength in generators, engines, and turbines helped offset weakness in traditional construction and resource equipment, reinforcing Caterpillar’s role as a key beneficiary of rising data-center and AI infrastructure capital expenditure.

Weaknesses

  • Lithium was the weakest-performing commodity of the week, declining approximately 6%. China’s EV price war continues to suppress automaker margins and delay the pass-through of higher battery input costs, weakening near-term demand signals for lithium even as production costs rise. At the same time, the recent lithium price rally is prompting Australian miners to consider restarting idled capacity and expanding output, raising the risk that curtailed supply quickly returns to the market and creates an oversupply glut if EV demand and pricing power fail to improve sustainably.
  • MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC is facing delays on its planned 500,000-ton-per-year copper smelter in Fang Chenggang, China, after its local partner withdrew following management changes, forcing the miner to seek a new Chinese counterparty. The setback comes as weak smelting margins clash with record copper prices, while sanctions-driven equipment constraints make overseas projects more attractive than building new capacity inside Russia.
  • A historic Arctic-driven surge in U.S. natural gas prices triggered extreme volatility, catching algorithmic traders and CTAs heavily positioned short, wiping out year-to-date gains as futures doubled in days and forcing rapid short-covering. The scramble to exit bearish positions amplified the rally, exposing structural vulnerabilities from freeze-offs, limited storage capacity, and overreliance on trend-following models during sudden weather shocks.

Opportunities

  • As Latin America enters 2026, Bolivia’s vast lithium, silver, zinc, and gold resources are increasingly viewed through the lens of corporate risk and opportunity, as miners, developers, and financiers recalibrate strategies amid a sharp geopolitical pivot toward the U.S. For companies on the ground, the focus has shifted from managing taxes and permitting to navigating bankability, contract durability, and geopolitical alignment—where access to capital, technology partners, and political-risk mitigation now matters as much as the size of the resource itself.
  • A new report from Berlin-based nonprofit Urgewald shows the global metallurgical coal project pipeline could expand capacity by roughly 52% this decade, even as the International Energy Agency forecasts demand slipping from about 1,114 Mt to 1,061 Mt by 2030. The 273 proposed or under-construction projects—totaling roughly 580 Mt per year of potential capacity—are concentrated in traditional coal regions, led by Australia, followed by China, Russia, and India, raising the risk of long-term oversupply.
  • BWX Technologies, Inc. opened its Centrifuge Manufacturing Development Facility in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, marking a major step toward restoring a fully domestic uranium enrichment capability to support U.S. national security and defense fuel needs. The facility underpins BWXT’s $1.5 billion NNSA contract, accelerating the transition of advanced centrifuge technology from development to production readiness while strengthening America’s sovereign nuclear supply chain.

Threats

  • Goldman Sachs warned that the 2026 rally in base metals may face near-term headwinds as elevated prices and bullish positioning run into softer end-user demand, particularly in China. Its latest copper survey shows fabricators’ order books down 10% to 30%, suggesting the run-up, driven by supply tightness, a weaker U.S. dollar, and rate-cut expectations, may be getting ahead of underlying manufacturing demand.
  • Weak Asian spot LNG demand is forcing rare cargo diversions from Canada’s west coast toward the Americas or Europe, highlighting softer near-term pricing power for new Pacific Basin supply. The shift underscores a threat to LNG producers as seasonal demand disappoints and excess cargoes seek alternative markets, potentially pressuring global spot prices and utilization rates.
  • While recycling offers a faster and less geopolitically risky path to securing critical minerals, U.S. access to secondary materials remains constrained by the Basel Convention, which limits cross-border flows of e-waste from many non-OECD countries where much of the world’s scrap is generated. This barrier risks leaving U.S. recyclers structurally disadvantaged versus China, already dominant in both primary processing and recycling, slowing efforts to offset mine dependence and weakening near-term supply-chain resilience despite strong policy momentum.

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

  • Regulated on-chain infrastructure is moving from pilot programs to real adoption by large financial institutions. Dubai Insurance, the fourth-largest insurer in the UAE, became the first insurer globally to offer a crypto wallet for paying premiums and receiving claims, partnering with Zodia Custody, backed by Standard Chartered. The launch aligns with the UAE’s post-2024 regulatory framework, signaling that crypto rails are now credible for core insurance cash flows.
  • Ethereum leaders are reactivating 70,500 ETH (~$220 million) untouched since the 2016 DAO hack to fund network security. About $13.5 million will be distributed as security grants, while the remaining ETH will be staked to generate roughly $8 million per year. This demonstrates Ethereum’s financial scale and governance maturity, strengthening trust among developers, institutions, and long-term users.
  • Talos, an institutional-grade crypto trading and portfolio management provider, raised $45 million in additional funding, bringing total funding to $150 million and valuing the firm at roughly $1.5 billion. With strategic investors including Robinhood, Sony Innovation Fund, Fidelity, and BNY, Talos has doubled revenue and clients for two consecutive years and integrates with BlackRock’s Aladdin, reinforcing its role as core infrastructure for institutional digital asset markets.

Weaknesses

  • Bitcoin is showing macro vulnerability, heading for its longest monthly losing streak since 2018, down nearly 6% in January and trading about 30% below recent highs. As investors rotate to traditional safe havens, gold and silver hit record levels, while the total crypto market cap fell over $200 billion, highlighting bitcoin’s high-beta risk behavior in risk-off environments.

  • Bitcoin is losing its “digital gold” role, failing to rise when the dollar weakens. While gold and silver saw $1.4 billion in inflows, Bitcoin funds had ~$300 million in outflows, and BTC is down ~30% from its peak. The BTC–gold correlation has turned negative (-0.18), with crypto traders rotating into commodity derivatives, underscoring Bitcoin’s declining appeal as a hedge or safe-haven.
  • DeFi’s structure leaves it exposed to future regulatory and tax expansion. While currently outside the EU’s DAC8 framework, the OECD’s CARF rollout shows cross-border crypto tax enforcement will expand globally in 2027. Without identifiable intermediaries, DeFi protocols face rising compliance burdens, regulatory inclusion risk, and increased uncertainty for users.

Opportunities

  • Bybit, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges by trading volume with over 81 million users, is expanding into IBAN-linked fiat accounts to offer bank-like services. This move creates an opportunity to capture deposits, payments, and treasury flows beyond crypto trading. With support for 18 fiat currencies across 200+ jurisdictions, Bybit can position itself as a crypto-native neobank, strengthening user retention and paving the way for U.S. expansion and a potential IPO.
  • U.S. regulators are signaling a structural opening for crypto adoption in retirement portfolios, with the SEC stating that the “time is right” for 401(k) plans to include digital assets under proper guardrails. An executive order signed in August 2025 enables access to the roughly $10 trillion U.S. retirement market, while forthcoming SEC–CFTC coordination could establish national standards that accelerate institutional flows and onshore crypto innovation.
  • For the first time, a U.S. Senate committee advanced a crypto market structure bill, with the Agriculture Committee voting 12–11 to move it to the next phase. While hurdles remain, the milestone increases the likelihood of clearer SEC–CFTC oversight, potentially unlocking new institutional products, onshore investment, and broader capital participation in U.S. digital asset markets.

Threats

  • Russia plans to cap retail crypto purchases at 300,000 rubles (~$4,000) per investor, ban privacy coins like Monero and Zcash, and prohibit crypto for domestic payments, with penalties similar to illegal banking offenses. Only a short list of approved assets, likely including BTC and ETH, would be widely tradable, with all others restricted to “qualified” investors who pass mandatory risk tests. These rules could shrink the retail base, reduce trading volumes, and fragment liquidity, while setting a precedent for other governments.
  • UK authorities warn that widespread stablecoin use could drain bank deposits, potentially moving tens of billions of pounds from traditional accounts. Proposed rules require systemic stablecoins to hold at least 40% of reserves at the Bank of England, raising capital and compliance costs and potentially slowing issuance, limiting payment innovation, and reducing credit availability.
  • The shutdown of NFT platforms like Rodeo highlights ongoing consolidation risk, as weak user growth and low trading volumes threaten platform survival. Rodeo will cease operations by March 10, following exits like Nifty Gateway, forcing creators and collectors to migrate assets and increasing uncertainty for users while underscoring the fragility of NFT infrastructure.

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

  • RTX ended 2025 with a record $268 billion backlog, up 23% year over year, driven by strong commercial and defense orders, and plans to invest more than $10 billion in capital expenditures and research and development in 2025 to expand capacity and automation, despite criticism from President Trump for not aligning with new White House directives.
  • Micron is strengthening its position amid a global memory crunch, as AI-driven demand pushes DRAM and NAND prices sharply higher, with some categories rising 80–100% in a single month and average prices expected to increase 50–55% in the first quarter of 2026. Micron has already sold out its 2026 high-bandwidth memory supply, is expanding production globally, and continues to set records in revenue, margins, and valuation as a key beneficiary of the AI cycle.

  • Lockheed Martin was the best-performing stock in the XAR ETF this week, rising 7.18% after the company secured a Pentagon deal to sharply increase THAAD missile interceptor production, reported strong quarterly sales growth, and issued upbeat earnings guidance along with plans for multibillion-dollar capacity investments.

Weaknesses

  • The European Union has given Google a six-month deadline under the Digital Markets Act to remove barriers for rival AI search assistants on Android and provide fair access to search data, targeting Gemini AI to promote interoperability and competition.
  • L3Harris continues to face execution and scheduling challenges across several intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, space, and advanced communications programs, with software integration and system complexity weighing on timelines and near-term margins despite strong demand.
  • Axon Enterprise Incorporated was the weakest stock in the XAR ETF this week, declining 21.17% amid broader industry rotation and a general market correction.

Opportunities

  • SanDisk obliterated Wall Street’s targets, delivering $3.03 billion in revenue and $6.20 in earnings per share versus expectations of $2.69 billion and $3.54. The company further surprised investors by guiding next quarter’s earnings as high as $14.00 per share, more than double the consensus forecast of $5.11.
  • The U.S. State Department has authorized a $1.7 billion sale to modernize Spain’s F100 frigates with advanced AEGIS systems and radars delivered by Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, and Ultra Maritime Naval Systems and Sensors. The upgrade extends the fleet’s service life to 2045 while strengthening NATO interoperability.
  • Massive AI demand has forced industry leaders such as Samsung to prioritize server chips, creating shortages that doubled consumer memory prices this week. This has triggered a “memory supercycle,” effectively driving outsized profits for manufacturers as buyers rush to secure inventory.

Threats

  • Norway’s $2.2 trillion sovereign wealth fund reduced its Nvidia holdings as part of a broader effort to streamline its portfolio, while maintaining sizeable positions in major U.S. technology firms.
  • The U.S. has deployed additional naval assets and carrier strike groups toward the Middle East near Iran amid heightened regional tensions. Any escalation could disrupt shipping lanes, trigger retaliatory actions via proxies, and force rapid reallocation of military resources, increasing geopolitical volatility and operational risk for defense programs tied to the region.
  • Despite strong headline budgets, defense companies face rising risks from political interference, shifting procurement priorities, and program-specific scrutiny under the new U.S. administration. Select programs may be delayed, restructured, or deprioritized, creating earnings uncertainty even as overall defense spending remains elevated.

Gold Market

This week gold futures closed the week at $4,713.00, down $304.00 per ounce, or 6.06%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week lower by 10.10%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came in off 9.80%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar was still down by 0.52% at the end of day on Friday.

Strengths

  • Gold was the top-performing precious metal for the week, despite still being down around 1.5%. Global demand hit an all-time high in Q4, as investors sought safety amid geopolitical uncertainty and looked to diversify away from the dollar, according to the World Gold Council. Total demand reached 1,303 tons between October and December, driven by strong ETF inflows and bar and coin purchases, which hit a 12-year peak.
  • Even with the recent pullback in spot prices, gold miners can still experience roughly 25% expansion in non-operational margins. Realized prices, based on quarterly averages, flow directly into revenue with minimal incremental cost. Since most operating costs are largely fixed and input prices lag spot inflation, higher realized prices automatically boost margins through operating leverage—before factoring in efficiency improvements or cost reductions.

  • As a strength, Hecla Mining Company is sharpening its identity as a pure-play silver producer following the Casa Berardi divestiture, which unlocks balance-sheet flexibility and redeploys capital while reducing operational complexity. Operationally, 2025 results reinforce that focus, with silver production up 5% year over year and record output and throughput at Lucky Friday, demonstrating improving asset quality and operating leverage to higher silver prices.

Weaknesses

  • The worst-performing precious metal for the week was platinum, down over 21%. Silver ended the week down about 16%, despite falling intraday on Friday by more than 30%. Precious metals and copper experienced a sharp sell-off on Friday following the announcement that President Trump had appointed Kevin Warsh as the new head of the Federal Reserve. The dollar rallied around 80 basis points over the course of the day, as Warsh has a reputation as a more hawkish figure on inflation, appearing to be the opposite of what Trump had suggested regarding lower interest rates.
  • Pan African reported H1 2026 operating results, with production slightly lower than estimated, although showing a 15% improvement over H2 2025, according to BMO. Costs were higher than expected, primarily due to increased share-based expenses.
  • According to Scotia, Fresnillo’s 4Q25 attributable silver production totaled 12.2 million ounces, up 6% quarter-on-quarter but down 8% year-on-year, and 5% below their 12.9-million-ounce forecast. Gold production reached 135.2 thousand ounces, down 11% quarter-on-quarter and 34% year-on-year, falling 6% short of the 143.8-thousand-ounce estimate.

Opportunities

  • Gold equities are trading at a 17% discount to bullion, with a free cash flow (FCF) yield of 6.0% based on 2026 estimates, or 7.0% at spot prices. The equities are cheap relative to bullion, as they have not been tracking the gold price at the same pace; therefore, valuations have room to move upward, according to Scotia.
  • Allied Gold has agreed to be acquired by Zijin Gold International in a friendly all-cash transaction valued at C$5.5 billion. Under the agreement, Zijin will pay C$44 per share in cash, representing a 5.4% premium and a 27% premium over Allied’s 30-day volume-weighted average price, according to Canaccord.
  • According to Raymond James, Franco-Nevada has announced that it has entered into a $100 million gold stream financing transaction with Orezone Gold to support its acquisition of the producing Casa Berardi Gold Mine and all other Quebec assets, including the Heva-Hosco Gold Project from Hecla Mining. The stream deliveries to Franco-Nevada consist of fixed deliveries of 1,625 ounces of gold per quarter for the first five years, followed by 5.0% of gold produced from the Casa Berardi Mine and other Quebec assets (excluding Heva-Hosco) and 2.5% of gold produced from Heva-Hosco.

Threats

  • According to Bank of America, the perennial challenge of replacing mined reserves could be eased by lowering cut-off grades through higher gold and silver reserve price assumptions. While this approach is logical, it comes with the trade-off of lower production and higher unit costs, all else being equal.
  • BMO recently suggested that the gold/silver ratio is in risky territory on a medium-term view. However, they note that price ratios could continue to diverge from historical norms if the current risk environment sustains safe-haven demand for non-gold precious metals, amplified by retail participation—even though these metals have traditionally behaved more like industrial metals.
  • Heraeus observes, “The silver price rally has become the most extreme since 1980, when the Hunt brothers attempted to corner the market. On January 23, the silver price exceeded $100/oz, 54% above its 200-day moving average.” They add, “While investors may have legitimate concerns about geopolitical risks, U.S. monetary and fiscal policy, and the fate of the U.S. dollar, history suggests this rally is much closer to its end than its beginning.”

Related: Gold Hits a Record High as Fed Independence Comes Under Scrutiny