Michael P. Lebowitz

Kevin Warsh Takes Over Fed as Market Rally Shows Signs of Structural Weakness

Miran projected a year-end 2026 Fed Funds rate of 2.625%, nearly a full percentage point below the current median of 3.42%. That dovish voice is now gone.

May 15

Intel’s 200% AI Surge: Is Wall Street Pricing In 2028 Already?

Momentum and gamma are driving the outperformance, and, in their wake, a supportive narrative is trying to justify it.

May 13

Labor Market Signals Are Breaking From History Ahead of the Next Jobs Report

Declines in temporary help services employment preceded the last three recessions by 6 to 12 months in each case.

May 8

Alternatives

Gold Bugs Keep Missing This Critical Inflation Truth

First, it lacks critical context. Second, it fails to consider another key factor driving inflation: the velocity of money.

May 7

Nvidia Losing Leadership as AMD and Intel Surge

. NVDA is now the laggard within its own sector, an unfamiliar position for a stock that has effectively been the market for the last 24 months.

May 5

AI Spending Boom Meets Market Reality: Alphabet Wins While Meta and Microsoft Get Repriced

The market isn’t punishing AI spending. It is demanding receipts that justify the magnitude of AI spending.

May 2

Private Credit Chaos Is Crushing BDCs—Opportunity or Trap?

The poor sentiment toward private credit funds has dragged down many high-quality BDCs, as well as weaker ones.

Apr 30

Wall Street Sent a Clear Signal: No Guidance, No Mercy

The stark message from Wall Street is that forward sales and earnings guidance now take precedence over recent financial results.

Apr 27

Few Stocks Are Driving This Rally While Most Lag Behind

Regarding breadth, consider that despite the S&P 500 being at a record high, only 65% of stocks are above their 20-day moving averages

Apr 24

Inside Private Credit: Growth, Liquidity Strain, and Rising Market Concerns

The private credit tremors started with the bankruptcies in the auto sector — Tricolor and First Brands.

Apr 23

Record Low Consumer Sentiment Meets Record High Markets

The concern, however, is forward-looking. Sentiment doesn’t just measure how people feel; at times it can shape how they spend.

Apr 20

Will Private Credit Cause The Next Financial Crisis?

As a result, some people think that recent rumblings in private credit may be a precursor to a new financial crisis.

Apr 16

AI Arms Race Heats up While Apple Waits for Perfect Entry Point

While tech giants invest billions in AI, Apple executives are quietly sitting on their hands and a mountain of cash.

Apr 9

Oversold Stocks and Oil Spikes Signal Opportunity, Not Panic

Behavioral finance calls this availability bias: the tendency to judge the likelihood of an outcome by how easily a vivid example comes to mind.

Mar 29

AI

AI Could Supercharge Growth—or Trigger a Job Market Crisis

While evaluating the impact of AI on the labor market is complex, we can distill both optimistic and pessimistic views into two straightforward questions.

Mar 26

S&P 500 Calm Masks Deep Sector Turbulence

Another confirmation of the wide dispersion of returns in the constituents of the S&P 500 and yet relatively calm trading in the index itself.

Mar 21

$1.2 Trillion Risk Building Beneath Markets Could Force Fed’s Hand

The Fed has a history of cutting rates and boosting liquidity when the labor market and inflation levels don’t necessitate action.

Mar 19

Real Value: Looking Through The Value Rotation Illusion

A passive investment environment is oftentimes agnostic to valuations, blurring the lines between traditional investment styles like value and growth.

Mar 12

Oil Curve Signals Short-Term Spike, Not Lasting Shock

In the context of the current Iran conflict, the oil curve is signaling that the short-term spike is unlikely to last.

Mar 11

Crypto

Dollar Debasement or Speculative Bubble? Gold, Bitcoin, and Market Signals

Thus, the question we raise is whether this is the right time for gold holders to swap for bitcoin.

Feb 18

Alphabet’s Rare 2126 Bond Issue Meets Speculative Energy Surge and Job Revisions Shock

On the small piece of debt, Alphabet insulates itself from future interest-rate cycles and the need to refinance debt at maturity.

Feb 14

Crypto

The Market’s Most Leveraged Bitcoin Bet Is Cracking—and It Could Spill Into AI, Tech, and Gold

Given that their Bitcoin is worth approximately $61 billion, debt holders are in a good position. But, Bitcoin holders are getting a little wary.

Nov 18

Markets Near All-Time Highs, but Signals Suggest More Volatility Ahead

Ten-year Treasury auction on Wednesday was on the weaker side, yet the bond market reaction was minimal.

Nov 15

Could a Recession Raise Bond Yields? Why TIPS May Outperform When Logic Fails

While many factors will ultimately influence the answer, the primary constraint on a decline in yield may be the government’s response to a recession

Oct 9

Chasing Yield: Is This the Next Big Bond Market Narrative?

When the bond market changes direction and yields fall, the two narratives we share below, and others, may replace today’s bearish narratives. #bonds

Jun 10

Is the Bond Market Facing a Major Paradigm Shift?

Some bearish bond investors in Japan and the US appear to believe that a paradigm shift is underway in the sovereign bond markets. #USA #Japan

Jun 3

The Bond Market’s Tug of War: Are Narratives Beating Fundamentals?

the difference between narratives and fundamentals. However, we briefly review the current situation with Treasury yields before starting. #bonds

May 29