Gold Pullback Amid War Signals Bigger Shift in Inflation, Rates, and Markets

When geopolitical tensions flare up, the natural assumption is that gold should immediately surge. War breaks out, markets panic… and the metal rallies as investors rush to safety.

That’s historically been the case, yet over the past two weeks, the opposite has happened.

Despite hostilities raging in the Middle East, gold has struggled to gain traction and is even down modestly from recent highs. That raises the question: why isn’t the precious metal behaving like a classic safe haven right now?

The answer has to do with oil, interest rates and the U.S. dollar.

Oil Is the Real Shock Driving Markets

On Thursday, Brent crude closed above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 after attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf severely disrupted global oil flows. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the war has created the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market, with exports through the Strait of Hormuz plunging to a fraction of normal levels.

This matters enormously because roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil passes through Hormuz. And when flows slow as dramatically as they are now, the entire energy system tightens almost immediately.

But as many of you know, oil shocks rarely stay confined to the energy sector. They quickly spread across inflation expectations, interest rates and currency markets. That’s exactly what we’re seeing now.

Is Diesel a Threat to Inflation?

Much of the economic impact from the conflict is tied not necessarily to gasoline but to diesel. There was a similar concern in December when the U.S. began blockading oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela.

After all, diesel powers freight transport, agriculture, construction, mining and a whole lot more. Analysts estimate that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could remove roughly 3 to 4 million barrels per day of diesel supply, representing as much as 12% of global consumption.

Because diesel is so embedded throughout the economy, rising prices can push up the cost of transporting goods and producing food. The result is broad inflation pressure that spreads far beyond the energy sector, just as we saw when Russia invaded Ukraine four years ago.

Higher Oil Means Higher Interest Rates

The bond market has responded accordingly. Treasury yields have moved higher as traders bet that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates elevated for longer than previously expected.

Higher yields, as I’ve explained many times before, create a headwind for gold in the short term.

As you know, gold doesn’t pay interest or dividends, so when bond yields rise, investors can become temporarily less enthusiastic about holding the metal. Rising rates also tend to strengthen the U.S. dollar, which further weighs on gold prices.

This is precisely what’s happened since the war began. The U.S. dollar has rallied while gold has drifted lower, creating a divergence between two assets that are both traditionally viewed as safe havens.

The Stagflation Risk

I see the broader macro environment also shifting in ways that makes gold look even more attractive as a haven.

If energy prices remain elevated, the global economy could face a period of slower growth combined with persistent inflation… which is the classic definition of stagflation.

That’s according to a report by Oxford Economics, whose models show that if oil prices were to trade above $140 per barrel for two months, global growth could stall while inflation could spike toward 6%.

I should point out that this is a worst-case scenario, and the odds of it happening are low, according to Oxford analysts. But this type of crisis has historically created the sort of volatile conditions that have forced investors to rethink traditional portfolio strategies. I believe real assets, gold especially, look especially attractive in these environments.

The Fiscal Backdrop Looks Even More Fragile

Another important factor is the fiscal position of the U.S.

The country entered the war in Iran with national debt approaching $39 trillion, rising by more than $7 billion per day over the past year, according to Congress’s Joint Economic Committee. Meanwhile, deficits remain large and interest payments are consuming a growing share of federal revenues.

This obviously limits policymakers’ flexibility.

The war itself is incredibly expensive. Pentagon officials estimate that the first week alone cost taxpayers roughly $11 billion. If the conflict escalates or drags on, fiscal pressures would increase further.

Historically, periods of rising debt and geopolitical uncertainty have ultimately been supportive for gold.

Why I Think Gold’s Weakness May Be Temporary

I think it’s important for investors to distinguish between short-term market action and long-term fundamentals.

In the short term, rising oil prices have pushed bond yields and the dollar higher, which has created pressure on gold. But the underlying drivers that typically support gold remain very much in place.

If the conflict continues, and inflation remains elevated and fiscal pressures grow, I believe the longer-term case for gold may become even stronger.

And with the metal still trading below $5,100 per ounce, now may be an opportune time to accumulate. I’ve always recommended a 10% weighting in gold, with 5% in physical bullion and the other 5% in high-quality gold mining stocks. Remember to rebalance on a regular basis.

Airlines and Shipping

Strengths

• The best performing airline stock for the week was Turkish Air, up 5.3%. According to Morgan Stanley, Qantas fares are expected to rise about 5%, according to a person familiar with the matter. Flights on Qantas’ European routes, including Perth–London, Perth–Paris, and services via Singapore, are more than 90% full this month, compared with a typical load factor of about 75% at this time of year, the airline said. The company also announced a fuel surcharge that averages about 9% of the economy ticket price, 2% of the business ticket price, and 15% for UO flights. On a weighted average basis, the fuel surcharge contributes about 6.5% of Cathay Pacific’s total airfare revenue.
• According to Bank of America, Scorpio sold two vessels built in 2015 for $35 million each and another 2015-built vessel for $60 million. This represents a sizable increase from its first quarter 2026 ship sale, which was valued at $52 million.
• Cathay Pacific reported strong full-year 2025 results, with record revenue of HK$116.8 billion, up 12% year-over-year and 4% above JP Morgan’s estimate. Net profit reached HK$10.8 billion, up 13% year-over-year and 10% above their forecast. The outperformance was driven by stronger-than-expected passenger revenue.

Weaknesses

• The worst performing airline stock for the week was Make My Trip, down 12.7%. According to UBS, if fuel remains at $4 per gallon through the second quarter, Delta’s second quarter earnings per share could fall to $1.13, down 55% compared with their current estimate of $2.49. For Southwest, second quarter earnings per share would fall to $0.57 versus $1.81 at present. United’s second quarter earnings per share could decline to $0.96, down 80% compared with their $4.78 estimate. American would move to a second quarter loss of $0.31 compared with their current forecast of a $1.39 profit. Alaska, JetBlue, Allegiant, and Frontier would also likely generate a significant second quarter loss.
• According to Clarkson’s Research, the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen by at least 90% compared with the level before the military conflict began. Before the conflict, 30% of crude oil trade by sea (about 20% of global supply), 30% of LPG, and 20% of LNG passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Under normal conditions, about 150 vessels per day pass through the strait.
• Airbus delivered 35 aircraft during the month, down 13% year-over-year compared with February 2025. Of the 35 aircraft delivered, Airbus handed over 25 A320 family aircraft (4 A320neos and 21 A321neos), 8 A220s, and 2 A350s, according to RBC.

Opportunities

• According to Morgan Stanley, historically, IAG has been able to pass through 50% of fuel‑cost inflation into higher yields. So, a 10% increase in spot fuel typically raises costs by 5% if unhedged. U.S. carriers, who are not hedged to fuel, are forced to raise ticket prices more aggressively.

• Air cargo rates are climbing due to constrained belly capacity from grounded Gulf carriers. Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad collectively account for 13% of global air cargo capacity, and with the airspace closure around the Persian Gulf region, rates to Europe from Southeast Asia have risen more than 6%, according to JP Morgan.
• UBS argues that Cathay Air and Singapore Air should outperform the global airline benchmark, reflecting their very different fundamentals. Both carriers benefit from strong balance sheets, prudent fuel hedging, network flexibility, and unique access to key air corridors, positioning them far better than many global peers in the current environment, while the elevated fare environment and rising cargo yields provide near-term support.

Threats

• Morgan Stanley updated its jet fuel assumptions for the airlines under its coverage to reflect the firm’s revised oil price forecast. The earnings revisions are concentrated in 2026, where it now estimates average jet fuel prices of $2.37, $2.68, $2.28, and $2.01 per gallon for the first, second, third, and fourth quarters of 2026, respectively. Importantly, the firm assumes that the impact of higher jet fuel prices in its models will be gradually offset by higher ticket prices, as airlines pass much of the cost pressure on to customers.
• The shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz appears to be backing up container ships in the Persian Gulf, which could push shipping rates higher in the near term. The disruption is creating greater upward pressure on spot container rates than Morgan Stanley had initially expected.
• According to Bank of America, airlines are quietly extending the life of older aircraft because new aircraft deliveries are delayed. As a result, the heavy maintenance and refurbishment markets are booming, and the value of mid-life aircraft continues to strengthen. Engine shop visit and overhaul prices are expected to rise by an estimated 6–10% per year over the next several years.

Luxury Goods and International Markets

Strengths

• Shares of Zalando rose in Germany on Thursday after the company reported stronger profit expectations and announced a €300 million share buyback program. The company also said artificial intelligence is improving efficiency and helping reduce costs, supporting future growth. Investors reacted positively to the outlook, sending the stock higher.
• China’s trade data for February came in stronger than expected, with both exports and imports showing solid growth. Some of the strength was likely due to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, which shifted production and shipping schedules.
• Nio, the Chinese electric car maker, was the best-performing name in the S&P Global Luxury Index over the past five days, with shares rising after the company reported stronger-than-expected earnings and improved profitability, which boosted investor confidence in the EV sector.

Weaknesses

• Travel stocks extended their sell‑off this week, with cruise line shares leading the decline. Rising oil prices have increased fuel cost concerns, pressuring margins and weighing on sentiment across the cruise sector.

• The hospitality sector was among the weakest areas this week as escalating conflict in the Middle East raised concerns about global travel demand. Airlines and hotel companies sold off as investors worried about further possible airspace disruptions and reduced tourism activity.
• RealReal, the online second‑hand resale platform for luxury products, was the worst‑performing name in the S&P Global Luxury Index over the past five days, with shares declining sharply. The sell‑off occurred in the absence of any company‑specific negative news or announcements and appears to have been driven by broader weakness across the luxury and consumer discretionary sector.

Opportunities

• Rising oil prices could support demand for electric vehicles, as higher gasoline costs encourage consumers to consider EV alternatives. As the leading EV manufacturer in the United States, Tesla may benefit if higher fuel prices push more buyers toward electric cars. Historically, higher fuel costs have increased interest in EVs as consumers look to reduce transportation expenses.
• Luxury brands could benefit from continued spending by wealthy American consumers. Analysts expect luxury sales to U.S. buyers to grow around 8% in 2026, supported by a strong stock market and the wealth effect among high-income households.
• China remains the largest luxury market, and recent data suggests demand may be stabilizing after a slowdown. A recovery in Chinese consumer confidence or stronger retail sales could provide a positive catalyst for global luxury companies.

Threats

• Luxury stocks continued to decline this week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased uncertainty for global travel and high-end consumer spending. The region had been one of the fastest-growing markets for luxury demand, driven by strong tourism, wealthy local consumers, and major retail expansion by brands. However, rising conflict is now raising concerns about travel disruptions, reduced tourism, and weaker spending in luxury hubs such as Dubai and Qatar.
• Hugo Boss reported solid recent results but issued a cautious outlook, warning that sales and earnings could decline in the near term as it continues restructuring its brand and distribution strategy. The weaker guidance raised investor concerns about slowing demand in the luxury apparel sector and potential pressure on profitability in the coming year.
• A stronger U.S. dollar can hurt luxury companies that sell a large portion of their products overseas. When sales are made in other currencies, those earnings are worth less when converted back into dollars or euros, which can reduce reported profits.

Energy and Natural Resources

Strengths

• The best performing commodity for the week was WTI Crude Oil, up around 8.59%. Futures surged as crude oil’s rally above $100 a barrel narrowed the gap with gasoil, making palm oil more competitive as a biodiesel feedstock and reinforcing its role as a strategic energy asset. Indonesia’s B45 biodiesel mandate and higher export duties have tightened global supply, while the Fastmarkets South Asia CPO benchmark rose about 9% in a single session amid the Middle East conflict.

• Iron ore is on track for its biggest weekly gain in over a year, with Singapore futures rising as much as 6% after China’s state-backed buyer CMRG expanded restrictions on BHP products for the second time this month amid tense contract negotiations. Chinese mills are moving BHP ore from ports to plants ahead of potential further curbs, pushing prices near $109 a ton.
• Fertilizer stocks rose Thursday as Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions lifted domestic spot prices ahead of the spring planting season. Nutrien received a Jefferies upgrade to buy with a price target of $96, as analysts noted improving potash revenue through the second half of the year. Bunge and Arianne Phosphate could also benefit, as tight global phosphate and nutrient markets reinforce the structural case for North American producers insulated from the conflict.

Weaknesses

• Coffee was the weakest performing commodity of the week, declining approximately 2.78%. Arabica coffee futures fell this week as analysts reassessed the global supply balance, with StoneX raising its 2026-27 Brazil crop estimate to a record 75.3 million bags — including an arabica harvest forecast up 37.5% year-over-year. Favorable rains in Minas Gerais and a record harvest projection from Brazilian agency Conab have added further downward pressure, pushing New York arabica futures down more than ~18% year-to-date.
• Asian LNG buyers are scrambling for prompt cargoes after the war-related shutdown of Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility tightened global supplies. Some Indian tenders went unawarded, and Bangladesh paid as much as $28/MMBtu for emergency shipments — roughly 2.5 times January levels. Prices have more than doubled since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran began on February 28, and the squeeze could intensify as Southeast Asia braces for hotter weather, forcing competition with Europe for a shrinking gas supply.
• Wheat and soybeans moving through the Strait of Hormuz each account for less than 5% of global trade, and corn is under 10%. For Gulf states — especially Iran — the strait is a lifeline. Over half of grain shipments through Hormuz go to Iran. About 1.9 million tons of wheat have been delivered this season out of an estimated 2.0–2.2-million-ton need, though crop issues could raise demand. Iran banned all food exports on March 3 and reports a 4-million-ton strategic wheat reserve, roughly four months’ supply.

Opportunities

• Lundin Mining is expanding its presence in Chile’s Vicuña District with a $215 million deal to raise its Caserones stake from 70% to 75% and acquire a 31% interest in the nearby Los Helados copper-gold project. Los Helados alone hosts over 8 million tonnes of indicated copper resources. The deal also benefits NGEX Minerals, which retains 69% of Los Helados and could gain from synergies like sending higher-grade ore to Lundin’s Caserones plant.
• GE Vernova expects its gas turbine order backlog to grow from $150 billion to at least $200 billion by 2028 and plans a 50% increase in U.S. production capacity to 24 gigawatts, driven by AI and data center demand. The growing backlog, echoed by Mitsubishi Power’s outlook, highlights a structural capacity bottleneck in power generation equipment as global electricity demand rises faster than in the previous decade.
• Japan and other Asia-Pacific nations plan to announce at least $30 billion in energy and critical mineral deals with U.S. companies at the first Indo-Pacific Energy Security Forum in Tokyo. Covering coal, oil, LNG, and nuclear power, the summit with 18 nations and senior U.S. officials highlights Washington’s push to diversify supply chains from China and position U.S. exporters as reliable alternatives amid Middle East energy disruptions.

Threats

• Corpus Christi is facing a water emergency that could force the shutdown of major refineries and petrochemical facilities at one of the nation’s largest petroleum export hubs. A decade of failed desalination efforts has left the city without a viable backup as reservoirs near depletion. The crisis could disrupt jet fuel supplies to Texas airports and gasoline production, while industrial users like Exxon-Saudi Gulf Coast Growth Ventures remain exempt from curtailment. The city’s last-ditch groundwater projects face legal challenges, making a timely solution unlikely without hurricane-scale rainfall.
• Rio Tinto has suspended operations at its Kennecott copper mine in Utah — which produces roughly 1% of global copper and about 20% of U.S. refined copper — following the death of a contract worker. CEO Simon Trott traveled to the site. The shutdown is significant because Kennecott hosts one of only two operating copper smelters in the U.S., making any extended disruption a potential bottleneck for domestic copper refining capacity.
• Global oil shipment disruptions have also affected sulfur supplies, largely a by-product of energy processing. The Middle East produces about 30% of the world’s sulfur and exports roughly 50%. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cause shortages of sulfur and sulfuric acid, affecting industries like fertilizer and copper production. About half of sulfur goes to phosphate fertilizers, 10% to metal processing, and sulfuric acid is essential for producing 15% of global copper via leaching/SXEW.

Bitcoin and Digital Assets

Strengths

• Institutional adoption of digital assets continues to grow as BlackRock’s staked Ethereum ETF launched with more than $15 million in first-day trading volume. The product also debuted with roughly $100 million in initial assets, highlighting strong investor interest in regulated crypto investment vehicles. The participation of major asset managers like BlackRock further integrates digital assets into traditional financial markets, reinforcing the growing legitimacy of cryptocurrencies as part of diversified investment portfolios.
• Bitcoin remained above $71,000 this week, outperforming traditional risk assets despite rising macroeconomic pressures. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed above 100, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose past 4.2%, conditions that typically weigh on cryptocurrencies. Even with oil near $100 per barrel and escalating geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin has held firm, highlighting its growing resilience as a macro asset. Institutional demand also remains strong, with Strategy acquiring roughly 11,000 BTC this week.
• Mastercard has launched a new crypto partner program involving more than 85 companies across the digital asset industry. The initiative aims to accelerate the integration of blockchain technology into payments, compliance, and financial services. By bringing together exchanges, fintech firms, and infrastructure providers, Mastercard is helping bridge the gap between traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem. The participation of a global payments leader highlights the growing institutional commitment to digital asset adoption and financial innovation.

Weaknesses

• OP Labs, the developer behind the Optimism Ethereum Layer-2 network, announced layoffs affecting about 9% of its workforce as part of a strategic refocus. The move underscores the operational pressures facing some blockchain infrastructure firms as they pursue sustainable growth. Despite Optimism supporting an ecosystem with billions of dollars in total value locked, companies in the sector are still adjusting cost structures and development priorities. The restructuring reflects the ongoing maturation of the crypto infrastructure industry.
• Crypto trading volumes declined to a four-month low in February. Activity across centralized exchanges slowed, with total spot and derivatives volumes falling to $5.61 trillion, down 2.4% from January and the lowest level since October 2024. Derivatives trading continues to dominate, accounting for about 72% of total volume. The decline highlights volatility and cooling participation in crypto markets.

• Bitcoin mining companies are exploring new ways to generate revenue as profitability stays under pressure. Hashprice, a key measure of miner revenue, remains near $23 per petahash per second, close to multi-year lows following the latest Bitcoin halving. As a result, some miners are using treasury assets for lending and trading strategies, according to market maker Wintermute. The shift underscores the financial strain on the sector as companies adapt to tighter margins and rising operational costs.

Opportunities

• Nasdaq launched an equity token initiative to explore issuing and managing traditional shares on blockchain. The project aims to put issuers at the center of the process, improving transparency, efficiency, and settlement speed. Tokenized equities could reduce operational costs and simplify ownership records, highlighting the potential to modernize equity markets.
• Tether is expanding stablecoin utility by investing $5.2 million in Ark Labs, a startup enabling USDT transactions directly on the Bitcoin network. The technology supports settlements over Bitcoin and the Lightning Network, combining security with faster, lower-cost payments. With USDT supply over $180 billion, this could broaden real-world payment use cases.
• An advisory group to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission endorsed developing tokenized securities, urging clear rules for issuing and trading traditional assets on blockchain. The panel noted benefits such as faster settlement, greater transparency, and lower costs, while emphasizing investor protection and compliance with existing laws.

Threats

• The U.S. Senate voted to include a provision banning a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC) in a housing bill, reflecting ongoing political divisions over government-issued digital money. Supporters cite privacy concerns, while critics warn it could limit innovation. The measure still faces uncertainty in the House, highlighting the fragmented regulatory landscape and potential delays in digital currency development.
• Victims of an alleged $328 million crypto Ponzi scheme have filed a lawsuit against JPMorgan, claiming the bank processed transactions that helped facilitate the fraud. The scheme promised high crypto trading returns but used new investor funds to pay earlier participants. Plaintiffs argue the bank should have flagged suspicious activity, underscoring ongoing fraud risks and potential regulatory scrutiny in the crypto sector.
• ARK Invest warned that quantum computing could pose a long-term risk to Bitcoin’s cryptography, though the threat is not imminent. Bitcoin relies on 256-bit cryptography, which requires millions of stable qubits to break. Today’s quantum computers have only hundreds to a few thousand qubits, far below the level needed. The risk is distant but highlights a potential future challenge for the crypto ecosystem.

Defense and Cybersecurity

Strengths

• Firefly Aerospace’s Alpha rocket successfully launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base, carrying a demonstrator payload for Lockheed Martin and demonstrating improved launch reliability after vehicle upgrades.
• Nvidia will invest $2 billion in Nebius Group to develop and deploy a next-generation hyperscale AI cloud platform for AI-native companies and enterprises. The investment underscores Nvidia’s confidence in Nebius’s full-stack AI capabilities amid accelerating demand for large-scale AI infrastructure.

• U.S. data‑center construction hit a historic high in January, with $25.2 billion in new projects breaking ground, driven almost entirely by AI and hyperscaler demand.

Weaknesses

• OpenAI and Oracle have canceled plans to expand the Stargate AI data center in Abilene, Texas, halting a proposed increase from 1.2 GW to roughly 2.0 GW due to financing disputes, changing technical requirements, and operational challenges. While the initial facility remains under construction, the cancellation highlights the financial, power, and reliability limits of gigawatt-scale AI infrastructure and opens opportunities for rivals like Meta, with Nvidia as a key broker, to utilize the available capacity.
• Investor Michael Burry accused Nvidia of using its market influence to block AMD from a major AI data center deal, raising potential antitrust concerns and regulatory scrutiny.
• AeroVironment risks permanently losing the SCAR program contract, which has weighed on investor sentiment. The contract represents roughly 5% of company revenue, and the potential loss triggered a sharp selloff, as the program had been seen as a key growth contributor.

Opportunities

• AMD has joined Nvidia, Broadcom, major cloud providers, and OpenAI in launching the Optical Compute Interconnect Multi-Source Agreement, aiming to create an open optical interconnect ecosystem for AI systems that replaces copper cabling with higher-bandwidth optical links.
• A KC-135 Stratotanker crash in western Iraq during Operation Epic Fury was confirmed as not caused by enemy action. Another tanker landed safely, highlighting ongoing operational risks for Boeing-built military aircraft in active theaters.
• Lumentum Holdings (LITE) will be added to the S&P 500 index effective March 23, 2026, moving up from the S&P MidCap 400. The inclusion is expected to drive additional demand from passive index funds that track the S&P 500.

Threats

• Centrus Energy has partnered with Palantir to deploy AI software for U.S. uranium enrichment, targeting $300 million in cost savings and efficiency gains and highlighting Palantir’s expansion into nuclear fuel supply-chain optimization.
• Mercury is expanding its manufacturing capabilities with the acquisition of SolderMask, maintaining operations at its Huntington Beach facility and establishing a parallel process line in Phoenix to enhance its processing for key defense programs.
• A cyberattack on Stryker by the Handala group has escalated, with hackers stealing 50 terabytes of data and erasing thousands of personal devices. Stryker is considering a costly rebuild of its global IT infrastructure.

Gold Market

This week gold futures closed the week at $5,048.80, down $109.90 per ounce, or 2.65%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week lower by 7.48%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came in off 7.48%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar rose 1.50%.

Strengths

• The best-performing precious metal for the week was gold, though it was still down 2.65%. Gold is pulling back for its second consecutive weekly decline, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising inflation expectations as the U.S.-Iran conflict keeps oil near $100 per barrel and reduces expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Silver has shown similar resilience — despite falling in the risk-off move, both metals remain well above their year-to-date bases. The broader pullback appears driven more by rising Treasury yields from safe-haven flows into bonds than by any fundamental change in the outlook for precious metals.

• Poland’s central bank governor, Adam Glapinski, signaled that his plan to use gold reserves to finance defense spending was effectively dead after the prime minister dismissed the proposal as politically motivated, according to Bloomberg.
• Franco-Nevada reported earnings per share of $1.85, ahead of Canaccord’s estimate of $1.64 and the consensus estimate of $1.67. Adjusted EBITDA of $540 million exceeded their estimate of $468 million by 16%. Franco-Nevada reported total gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) of 142,000, 12% above their estimate of 126,000 and up 2% quarter-over-quarter. The beat was largely driven by higher GEOs from Antamina, Antapaccay, South Arturo, and Hemlo, which more than offset lower oil and gas GEOs.

Weaknesses

• The worst-performing precious metal for the week was palladium, down 5.86%. Palladium faced continued selling pressure as ETF holdings declined for the ninth consecutive session, according to Bloomberg, reflecting persistent outflows across the precious metals complex. Adding to the pressure, South Africa reported a 4.6% year-over-year rise in mining production in January, with platinum group metals output up 10.8%, pointing to stronger supply that weighed on the near-term price outlook.
• Although South Africa is the continent’s top exporter of mineral products, companies are investing less in exploring for new mines. Exploration spending has declined for the seventh consecutive year, falling 5.3% in 2025. The Minerals Council South Africa called the ongoing drop “deeply troubling for our sector” and warned it requires urgent attention, according to Bloomberg.
• Gold ETFs saw net outflows over the past week after three consecutive weeks of inflows, with North American investors driving the selling while European and Chinese investors continued to buy. Silver ETFs also saw net outflows, led by European investors, according to BMO.

Opportunities

• Pan African is acquiring Australian-listed Emmerson Resources. Each Emmerson shareholder will receive 0.1493 new Pan African shares, implying an offer price of A$0.45 per share and a fully diluted equity value of A$311 million, according to BMO. Pan African and Emmerson already have a joint venture at the Tennant Creek project in Australia, so the deal should eliminate the partnership structure and simplify ownership.
• Scotia expects the gold risk premium to remain elevated and volatile in 2026 and remains constructive on the gold price. Since 2000, the risk premium averaged 43% in 2012 and peaked at 53% in 2011. If those levels were reached again, it would imply gold prices of about $6,000 per ounce and $7,300 per ounce, respectively. A return to the historical average risk premium of 12% would imply a gold price of about $3,850 per ounce.
• Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, remains bullish on gold. He expects the metal to reach $6,000 per ounce by the end of the year and $10,000 by the end of the decade, adding that gold is a strong competitor to Bitcoin, according to Bloomberg.

Threats

• According to CLSA, Northern Star has issued another operational downgrade for fiscal year 2026, with gold output now expected to reach about 1.5 million ounces, below the latest guidance of 1.6–1.7 million ounces. The lower production is driven by variability at the KCGM mill and reduced mining productivity across several assets, particularly Jundee.
• Pantoro lowered its fiscal year 2026 production guidance to 86,000–92,000 ounces from 100,000–110,000 ounces, according to Goldman. The revision reflects the impact of heavy rainfall in February, as well as challenges related to transitioning to a single underground contractor and equipment availability.
• Ghana is planning legislation to replace its fixed gold-mining royalty with a price-linked system, as Africa’s top producer seeks to capture more revenue from rising bullion prices. Miners would pay a royalty between 5% and 12% of revenue depending on gold prices, replacing the current flat 5% rate, according to Bloomberg.

Related: Think Selling Is Smart During War? History Suggests Otherwise