Nvidia Keeps Beating Earnings — But Markets Want More This Time

Written by: Luca Discacciati | Interactive Brokers

NVIDIA is once again at the center of the market’s attention. The company is expected to report its next quarterly results on May 20, 2026, and investors will be looking for much more than a simple earnings beat. The real question is whether NVIDIA can continue to justify the extraordinary expectations already embedded in its share price.

According to the new Forecaster Terminal earnings calendar, the setup looks extremely strong. NVIDIA currently shows a 100% EPS beat rate, a 100% revenue beat rate, a 76% Buy analyst consensus, and a 97% bullish signal from prediction-market earnings beat odds. The dashboard also summarizes the next-quarter results sentiment as Bullish, while the upcoming EPS estimate stands at $1.76.

Forecaster Terminal’s earnings calendar shows NVIDIA with a 100% EPS beat rate, a 100% revenue beat rate, bullish prediction-market odds and a bullish next-quarter sentiment. Source: Forecaster Terminal Earnings Calendar

This is exactly the type of situation where an earnings calendar becomes more than a list of dates. For a company like NVIDIA, the earnings release is not just a corporate event; it is a market-moving catalyst.

NVIDIA’s earnings track record remains exceptional

One of the most important data points in the Forecaster Terminal dashboard is NVIDIA’s recent earnings history. Over the last several quarters, the company has consistently beaten EPS expectations.

The sequence is impressive. In Q2 2024, NVIDIA reported actual EPS of $0.61 versus an estimate of $0.56. In Q3 2024, it reported $0.68 versus $0.65. In Q4 2024, actual EPS came in at $0.81 versus $0.75. The trend continued through 2025 and into 2026, with Q1 2026 showing actual EPS of $1.62 versus an estimate of $1.54.

The next reported quarter is expected to bring EPS of around $1.76, according to the Forecaster dashboard. Polymarket’s dedicated NVIDIA earnings market was created around a Street non-GAAP EPS estimate of $1.77, with the market resolving positively only if NVIDIA reports non-GAAP EPS above that level.

This creates an interesting dynamic. The market is not simply asking whether NVIDIA is a great company. It is asking whether NVIDIA can beat already-high expectations again.

The bar is high, but the business momentum is still powerful

NVIDIA’s most recent official results showed just how strong the business remains. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, the company reported record quarterly revenue of $68.1 billion, up 20% sequentially and 73% year over year. Data Center revenue reached $62.3 billion, up 22% sequentially and 75% year over year. For the full fiscal year, NVIDIA generated $215.9 billion in revenue, up 65% from the previous year (Source: Nvidia Investor Relations ).

That explains why investors continue to treat NVIDIA as the key bellwether for the artificial intelligence investment cycle. The company is no longer just a semiconductor stock. It has become the central infrastructure provider for AI data centers, cloud computing, large language models, inference, and accelerated computing.

Reuters reported in March that CEO Jensen Huang had raised the company’s opportunity for Blackwell and Rubin AI chips to more than $1 trillion by the end of 2027, up from a previous estimate of $500 billion through 2026.

This is one of the most important themes to monitor in the upcoming earnings call. Investors will want to understand whether demand for Blackwell remains strong, how quickly Rubin can contribute to future revenue, and whether hyperscalers are still accelerating their AI infrastructure spending.

China remains the main source of uncertainty

The biggest risk factor around NVIDIA is not demand in the United States. It is China.

Reuters recently reported that the United States approved sales of NVIDIA’s H200 AI chips to around ten Chinese companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and JD.com. However, the same report also noted that actual shipments had not yet occurred because of complications on both the U.S. and Chinese sides.

This is important because China used to be a major market for NVIDIA’s AI chips. Export restrictions, licensing rules and geopolitical tensions have made revenue visibility much more difficult. A separate Reuters report noted that semiconductor export controls were not a major topic in recent U.S.-China talks, suggesting that progress on the issue remains uncertain.

For the upcoming quarterly report, investors should therefore focus not only on headline revenue and EPS, but also on management’s comments about China. Any indication that H200 shipments can restart meaningfully would likely be interpreted positively. On the other hand, continued uncertainty could limit forward guidance, even if the current quarter beats expectations.

The real test may be guidance, not the reported numbers

With a company like NVIDIA, an earnings beat may not be enough. The market already expects strength.

The Forecaster dashboard shows that both historical EPS and revenue beat rates stand at 100%. That is extremely positive, but it also means investors may have become accustomed to NVIDIA outperforming expectations. In this type of setup, the stock reaction often depends more on future guidance than on the quarter that has just ended.

Investors will likely focus on four key areas:

First, data center revenue growth. NVIDIA’s Data Center segment is the engine of the entire investment thesis. If growth remains strong, the AI infrastructure narrative remains intact.

Second, Blackwell demand. Any sign of delays, supply constraints or weaker demand would be closely scrutinized.

Third, Rubin timing. Investors want visibility on the next product cycle. NVIDIA’s long-term valuation depends on the idea that each new architecture can open another growth phase.

Fourth, China exposure. If management suggests that China-related revenue could improve, this could become an upside catalyst. If the situation remains blocked, analysts may become more cautious on future estimates.

Why Forecaster’s new earnings calendar matters

This NVIDIA example shows why the new Forecaster Terminal earnings calendar can be useful for investors.

Traditional earnings calendars usually show only the reporting date. Forecaster goes further by combining several layers of information in one place: EPS beat history, revenue beat history, analyst consensus, prediction-market odds, upcoming earnings dates and historical earnings performance.

In NVIDIA’s case, this gives investors a very clear snapshot. The historical data says the company has repeatedly beaten expectations. Analysts remain broadly positive. Prediction markets are strongly bullish. The next-quarter sentiment is classified as bullish.

But the same dashboard also helps investors understand the risk: when expectations are this high, even a good result may not be enough unless guidance confirms the next phase of growth.

Conclusion

NVIDIA enters its next earnings release from a position of strength. The company has an exceptional earnings track record, a dominant role in the AI infrastructure cycle and a strong bullish setup according to Forecaster Terminal’s earnings calendar.

However, investors should avoid focusing only on whether NVIDIA beats EPS estimates. The more important question is whether management can convince the market that AI demand remains strong enough to support another leg of growth.

For this reason, the key numbers to watch are not just EPS and revenue. The real market-moving elements will likely be data center growth, Blackwell demand, Rubin visibility and any update on China-related chip sales.

In other words, NVIDIA does not simply need to beat expectations. It needs to prove that expectations are still not high enough.