Newsworthy mornings are tricky for me. I had started writing a morning piece about another day of broad market consolidation; then I stepped away from my desk for just a few moments to find that stocks had abruptly turned around. The reason was immediately obvious – a report from Axios that the US and Iran had reached a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. If true, this would indeed be terrific news. Why then aren’t stocks and oil responding even more favorably?
Two theories come to mind. Traders have either (1) gotten skeptical after a near-constant barrage of positive stories that ultimately led to naught, or (2) after two months of digesting those stories, they are largely priced in. These ideas are not incompatible since they are relatively subtle variations on the same sort of theme.
But the potential outcomes can differ substantially.
If traders are skeptical of the ultimate efficacy of the peace talks, then that leaves room for further upside if and when they finally do lead to a lasting resumption of ship traffic through the Strait. WTI and Brent crude futures, mind you, are still higher on the day despite pulling back from their early highs, indicating that oil traders seem to be greeting the Axios report with some skepticism. I have frequently asserted that commodity traders are typically much better at interpreting geopolitical news when it affects the futures in which they specialize. Their lack of enthusiasm seems to bias the working hypothesis toward theory #1.
If, on the other hand, stocks are only rallying modestly because equity prices are already pricing in a positive outcome, that sets up a “sell the news” scenario. After nearly two months of essentially uninterrupted gains, that would be an unpleasant prospect. A complete reversal of the recent rally seems highly unlikely, since positive earnings and guidance from a wide range of companies – mainly, but not exclusively, in the tech sector – have also been a key factor behind major indices’ advances. But that hardly rules out a pullback that many could find surprising – particularly when we see VIX languishing below 16.
Hopefully, we’ll know soon enough which it is. Stay tuned!
Related: Volatility Stays Low as Investors Lean Into Optimism and FOMO Hedging